The outcome of the October '99 municipal elections has clearly shown that the Movement for Rights and Freedoms could not evade the lot of all the other parties contesting in the elections. MRF's  firm voters, who have a reputation of the best organized and disciplined electorate, slapped harshly their leadership in the face. OMDA's July prognosis was that the MRF alone would win 30 municipalities. In fact, the MRF won 29 municipalities altogether, 23 of which independently. The MRF suffered serious losses in Kardzhali, Momchilgrad, Kirkovo, Zavet, etc. - each of these municipalities had been under MRF administration for the past 10 years. These defeats are strategic and with long-term consequences. Especially bitter is MRF's defeat in Kardzhali. At the same time, it  should be mentioned that the MRF has lost as little as 20-22 per cent of  the 1997 parliamentary elections vote, which is an acceptable percentage as compared to the decrease in the votes given for the other parties. The MRF received  their traditional 6-7 per cent of the overall vote.

The analysis of the reasons underlying MRF's election defeat is crucial, because it can help outline the near prospects of both the MRF and Bulgaria. Among the most important causes of the actual election returns we should point out in the first place the silent war waged against the MRF and Dogan himself. "A war is waged against us by the entire state apparatus, it is for the first time that people are gripped by fear psychosis", claimed Ahmed Dogan.

In fact, the UDF has been confronting the MRF, and Dogan in particular, over the last two years. Along with the total pressure by the media, by the administration, as well as by using various economic channels, there has been the press on the part of its doubling National Movement for Rights and Freedoms /NMRF/ led by Gyuner Tahir. The consecutive attempt for splitting the MRF cannot be deemed as successful, but it did create big difficulties for the MRF. In the run-offs the MRF and the NMRF contested in eight municipalities of which the MRF won seven. We should also mention the appointments of members of the NMRF breakaway group to several district administrations. It is quite evident there is hostility and even intolerance. The atmosphere became even tenser with the statement made by Prime Minister Kostov about MRF's being a curse and about its satanic nature.

The complicated voting system was another unfavourable factor for the MRF. The largest number of invalid ballots were registered in the areas of traditional MRF influence. The MRF is also dependent on the continued shrinking of its electorate as a result of the ongoing intensive emigration to Turkey.

Nevertheless, the most important reason for losing their traditional voters is the ever growing isolation of MRF's leadership from their electorate's vital interests. The regions inhabited by ethnic Turks are characterized by a record high unemployment, with poverty growing larger and larger and assuming dangerous proportions.

For ten years now leader Ahmed Dogan has acted as a professional politician in the high-level political game. His skillful balancing has already become a by-word and is unsurpassed. At the same time, Dogan performed poorly in the ruling both of the country and of his own party. He let the problems in the party accumulate, so that on 2 December, when the national party forum is due to take place, they might go out of control. Certainly, Dogan made big efforts to decapsulate the MRF and obtain international recognition for it. Part of these efforts was also the foundation of the Liberal Democratic Union (LDU), whose backbone is the MRF. Simultaneously, very strong opposition attitudes were formed in the party against MRF's playing the part of a launcher rocket for other smaller parties that would otherwise be unable to enter parliament. To the MRF electorate this tactics is not only inexplicable, but also unacceptable. The local elections have proven this in a categorical way. In a good number of places across the country the MRF  established more fruitful partnerships with government coalition member BANU - People's Union headed by Mrs. A. Mauser than with their LDU allies. On the other hand, the MRF leadership have failed to do anything  real, anything tangible for alleviating the plight and improving the social condition of their electorate. By refusing to go to the polls, these voters made it absolutely clear they looked forward to some substantial steps being made by their leaders along this line, rather than to new shows of top level looping on the political arena. Like most of the other parties, the MRF has failed to nominate respected candidates of proven merits. Among MRF's candidates predominant were those put forward with a view to party-apparatus calculations and combinations. The ongoing battle between the UDF and the MRF clearly shows the MRF would not accept the status of an affiliate party and would defend firmly its own identity and autonomy. No change should be expected from the MRF in this respect.

Undoubtedly, changes should be expected to take place at the national forum of the MRF scheduled December 2. In the first place, these changes would affect the central and especially some of the local leaderships. Some of the local leaders discredited during the elections are to be removed. There would certainly be a shift in policy too. It is most likely for the MRF to get encapsulated again and tighten the loosened defence mechanism. The policy of widley flexible balancing will possibly be abandoned and replaced by a line of balancing within the centrist spectrum. Closer contacts with the BSP and the Left in the sphere of social problems should not be ruled out. The new MRF leadership is likely to give serious attention to the social issues and on this basis we can expect closer communication with the UDF regarding various social policy projects. Similar leanings already exist not only among the grass-root members, but also among many of the local leaders. It is also very likely for MRF's new leadership to engage in a more intensive international activity seeking to attract foreign investments to the traditionally MRF-governed regions.
No one profited in any way from the all-out engagement between the UDF and the MRF. The only result is higher tension in the country, and questioned ethnic stability. It is time for both UDF and BSP leaderships to realize that the MRF and Ahmed Dogan have made a very significant contribution to ethnic peace in Bulgaria, as well as that the MRF is an integral part of Bulgaria, part of Bulgaria's face in the eyes of the EU, the Council of Europe, NATO, the United States and Turkey, in the eyes of the Arab world and the Islamic countries.
The BSP functionaries have given a clear signal they have come to this revelation. Leader Georgi Parvanov has openly declared the MRF to be a strategic partner and called for co-operation and talks. It is difficult to presume the formation of a coalition between the two parties, but their interaction in pursuing aims of mutual benefit may turn quite real.
It is difficult to fancy that closer interaction between the current leaderships of the UDF and the MRF are possible. Still, it is more likely for the UDF headquarters to revise its attitude and conduct and make efforts for easing and warming up of their relations, than to continue the course of total confrontation. Important in this respect will be the changes expected to take place in the MRF at its December 2 forum.
After the local elections MRF's leadership has been all of a twitter and launched a cascade of unbalanced demands  and threats. Such were their demands for the resignations of three of the major ministers in the cabinet, for fixed quotas of posts in the country's administration, as well as their boycotting the work of the Kardzhali municipal council, etc. Dogan declared that "there will be bloodshed in this place", and that another KLA could be born out of the MRF. We shall not dwell upon these nervous outbursts because of their more than evident levity. Ahmed Dogan is too intelligent to pick up the role of a Bulgarian Hashim Thaci. He has declared his own strong resentment to terrorism. Besides, nobody in Bulgaria wishes such things to happen. The majority of ethnic Turks in Bulgaria are much more inclined to emigrate than to wage a terrorist battle. The ethnic Turks, like the predominant number of the people who did not vote in the elections, want jobs and a better life. Such is the goal that should unite all politicians in Bulgaria. On the other hand, the MRF is a party which has always been able to obtain 10 per cent of the national vote.